Update on the NAIC Generator of Economic Scenarios (GOES) Project 

ABOUT THIS WEBINAR 

Hear an update on the NAIC Generator of Economic Scenarios (GOES) Project, the NAIC’s transition from the Academy’s Interest Rate Generator (AIRG) to a new economic scenario generator. Speakers shared the latest on the project, now in its fourth year, and discussed some of the remaining decision points and challenges the project faces. 

Detailed discussion topics include: 

• Update on NAIC project and model office and field test results/status. 
• Overview of the approach the NAIC is taking in terms of targeting criteria and evaluation criteria. Definition of low-for-long model requirements.  
• Review of sample economic statistics based on the targeting criteria. Insights into how the targeting criteria are implemented and how the models perform against the evaluation criteria.  
• Issues in the use of complex models with limited documentation, the output from which is unreproducible. Context and discussion of the Academy simplified corporate model as an example of how actuaries can develop a financial model. 
• Summary of remaining steps and decision points in the GOES project. 

Now participants should have an understanding of the status of the GOES project and be able to explain the remaining steps and decision points in the GOES project. They should also understand the approach the NAIC has adopted for model targeting criteria and evaluation criteria, issues in the use of complex models with limited documentation, and an example of how a simplified model can be developed that is transparent and fit for purpose. 

SPEAKERS 

• Jason Kehrberg, MAAA, FSA 
  Vice President, Life 
• Iouri Karpov, MAAA, FSA 
  Member; Economic Scenario Generator Subcommittee 
• Scott O’Neal 
  Life Examination Actuary, NAIC 

MODERATOR 

• Hal Pedersen, MAAA, ASA 
  Chairperson, Economic Scenario Generator Subcommittee 

CONTINUING EDUCATION 

The American Academy of Actuaries believes in good faith that attendance at this live webinar constitutes an organized activity as defined under the current Qualification Standards for Actuaries Issuing Statements of Actuarial Opinion in the United States, and that attendees may earn up to 1.8 continuing education (CE) credits for attending this live webinar. 

Additional Information
Registration for this webinar is limited to the first 1,000 registrants. Visit our webinar FAQs to learn more about our webinar policies, including group registration. For more information about this webinar, contact education@actuary.org.