Capital Market Outlook
First, COVID hit and the economy virtually shut down. The government responded with highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to reduce the impact of the resulting economic contraction. But the policy response caused inflation to jump as the economy recovered.
The Federal Reserve responded with a reversal in policy, pushing up interest rates at a record pace starting in spring 2022. Now we see an inverted yield curve, an inflation rate only partially restrained, and an economy which may be on the verge of recession.
How will this period of instability play out? Is inflation really under control? Is a recession truly on the horizon? If so, how bad might it be? Will rates stay this high going forward—will we ever see the low rates of 2012-2022 again?
What about return expectations?
This session presented an updated look at economic and capital market conditions, reviewed potential economic outcomes, and provided a summary of return outlooks from an array of published capital market models. Attendees will hear an analysis of current conditions and insights into implications.